Summary The S&P 500 hit a new high for the year, but several signs of downside pressure continue to accumulate under the surface. U.S. mid-caps and small-caps are lagging, and the stock market rally has an increasingly narrowing breadth. The potential exists for this pressure to pull stocks back to the downside, but it also offers better entry points for … Read More

Investors have no shortage of things to worry about in the current environment.  The threat of a looming economic recession, banking crises, and the ongoing debt ceiling debate are just a few of the current threats.  As a result, investors are understandably nervous about getting blindsided by a sudden and sharp downside move in the stock market.  Fortunately, the market … Read More

As good as it gets?  The U.S. stock market has been in rally mode dating back to last October.  This includes an impressive bounce since mid-March in the wake of the collapse of a handful of major U.S. banking institutions.  The stock market resilience has indeed been impressive.  But despite these various positives, the path of least resistance for U.S. … Read More

Summary If it keeps on rainin’.  It was nearly a century ago when the Great Mississippi Flood resulted in one of the most destructive and costly natural disasters in U.S. history.  One wonders whether another flood is threatening to break across the U.S. banking system and the broader economy today. Mean old levee.  Over the last two months, we’ve seen the failure … Read More

Summary I recently had the opportunity to attend a two-day conference in Sarasota, Florida hosted by the Global Interdependence Center.  The topic was Cryptocurrency and the Future of Global Finance.  Given that it included some of the leading research and analysts on cryptocurrencies along with an address from Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Christopher Waller, the event provided a substantive … Read More

The stock market has been remarkably resilient so far in 2023 despite a steady stream of challenging news.  Whether it has been persistently high inflation readings, a Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates longer and farther than expected, a set of sudden bank failures, or the lingering threat of arguably the most anticipated economic recession in history, the U.S. … Read More

Summary It has been a recently tough stretch for traditional asset allocation strategies.  Prior to the start of last year, an investor with a long-term time horizon seeking to manage risk in the short run could capture the appreciation potential of stocks while offsetting the potential downside by blending in a meaningful allocation to bonds.  While such an approach had … Read More

Meet the new bank crisis. NOT the same as the old bank crisis.  This is not the Great Financial Crisis II.  It’s not the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998.  It’s not the Great Depression either.  A lot of what is taking place today has some rhymes with various past episodes, but we are charting new territory with new lessons … Read More

Let’s trace the hints and check the file.  You’ve got to hand it to the U.S. stock market.  The U.S. Federal Reserve keeps throwing monetary policy haymakers, and the S&P 500 takes the hits in stride.  The cooling of inflationary pressures has ground to a halt, and in some respects pricing pressures are reaccelerating, yet U.S. stocks are largely unfazed.  … Read More

Summary After a blazing start to 2023, the U.S. stock market has cooled in recent weeks.  Looking ahead to the upcoming spring, the path of least resistance for stocks appears to be to the downside.  For while the underlying economy has remained solid in the face of aggressive monetary tightening from the U.S. Federal Reserve, this resilience in large part … Read More