Corporate earnings season is underway once again.  With the second quarter of 2023 having just drawn to a close at the end of June, publicly traded companies will soon be coming forward to not only reflect on their recent operating results, but perhaps more importantly to update their projections on performance through the remainder of the this year and next.  … Read More

On Wednesday, I had the opportunity to attend the GIC Teton Economic Outlook conference in Wyoming.  The event brought together some of the best and most thoughtful economic and financial minds in the industry today for an interactive discussion about the broader macroeconomic and investment outlook as well as more focused discussions on labor markets and cryptocurrencies.  What made this event even … Read More

The outlook is strong for asset allocation portfolios heading into the second half of 2023.  From a broad diversification perspective, markets are providing good reasons for optimism across the key asset class spectrum.  Of course, the outlook is not without risks that must also be considered. Stocks. The trend for stocks as measured by the S&P 500 is definitively to the … Read More

It has arguably been the most anticipated and predicted economic recession in U.S. history.  It has many of the classic trappings leading up to the event including aggressively tightening central bank, inverted yield curve, contracting manufacturing activity, declining leading economic index, and tightening bank lending standards just to name a few.  The only twist is that the actual recession that … Read More

Summary The bond market is regaining its footing as inflationary pressures continue to wane, with investors showing confidence in improving conditions for the asset class. Favoring U.S. Treasuries over investment-grade corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities is recommended for the second half of 2023 due to the current market environment. The yield premium for owning corporates remains thin relative to history, … Read More

Investors are being provided with some meaningful signals for optimism as the sun brightens and the weather warms with the summer about to begin.  This does not mean, however, that we should be ready for blue skies from now on, as the blue days that made markets challenging at times over the last eighteen months may not yet be gone. … Read More

“Sell in May and go away” is an age-old stock market adage.  It’s based on the principle that stocks historically have performed better during the period from November to April versus the stretch from May to October.  Does this maxim still hold up today? Meaningful historical outperformance. The notion of “sell in May and go away” does have merit.  For example, … Read More

Summary The S&P 500 hit a new high for the year, but several signs of downside pressure continue to accumulate under the surface. U.S. mid-caps and small-caps are lagging, and the stock market rally has an increasingly narrowing breadth. The potential exists for this pressure to pull stocks back to the downside, but it also offers better entry points for … Read More

Investors have no shortage of things to worry about in the current environment.  The threat of a looming economic recession, banking crises, and the ongoing debt ceiling debate are just a few of the current threats.  As a result, investors are understandably nervous about getting blindsided by a sudden and sharp downside move in the stock market.  Fortunately, the market … Read More

As good as it gets?  The U.S. stock market has been in rally mode dating back to last October.  This includes an impressive bounce since mid-March in the wake of the collapse of a handful of major U.S. banking institutions.  The stock market resilience has indeed been impressive.  But despite these various positives, the path of least resistance for U.S. … Read More