The period from mid-August to mid-November is a notorious time of year for capital markets. The pithy investment strategy “Sell in May and go away” is based on the idea of avoiding this stretch of time of year in stocks and picking back up after Halloween. And 2023 has been no exception in this regard. While U.S. stocks had a rousing summer through the end of July, the more than two months since have been particularly rough not only for stocks but even more so for bonds. How much lower should we reasonably expect stocks and bonds to go from here?
Q4 Outlook: Stocks & Bonds
It has been an interesting and eventful year so far. Heading into 2023, it was widely expected that the U.S. was headed toward recession and that the equity markets would face continued volatility amid the uncertain economic outlook. But in the nine months since, we’ve seen a resilient U.S. economy that continues to grow at a healthy rate and a U.S. stock market that has advanced by double-digits year to date. Nonetheless, the markets are still not without meaningful risks as evidenced by stock and bond market performance over the last couple of months. As a result, it is worth exploring what we might reasonably expect from capital markets as we move through the final three months of the calendar year.
